July 9 S&P 500 daily

A little change in direction. As long as oil retraces we will see our market go up.

July 7 SP 500 emini daily

The daily looks like we have some more room down. If we open with a gap down, I would expect to see a brief rally and then continuation to the downside with 1233 as first target.

Looking for a 3.5 million volume day, it looks like it is on the horizon as volume is picking up. Lots of volatility and news is sending is in all directions. Oil is adding alot of volatility to the mix also.

You would think with a $4.00 a barrel drop we might have closed positive but the market just gave up its rally before the close.

If we open gap up or neutral we can test 1260 then 1269

S&P 500 Emini Weekly chart

This is the weekly chart for the S&P 500 Emini. As you can see we have a trendline just under 1233 with another area of support at 1213. I expect us to test it this week as the Dow approaches 11,000.

Watch for some major support and buyers to come in in the the 1213 area, from here we have a nother 30 points to go for the next major support. We are also watching to see if we get new lows on the RSI for a continuation on this move.

July 3 SP 500 up 2.75 before the three day weekend

Treasury two-year notes gained after reports showed payrolls fell for a sixth straight month and U.S. service industries unexpectedly contracted in June, reducing speculation the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates. Which by the way puts us behind the Euro again. We will see a pull back on the euro but am expecting to hit new highs.

The 62,000 drop in payrolls was more than forecast, and followed a revised 62,000 decline in May that was greater than initially reported, the Labor Department said in Washington. The jobless rate remained at 5.5 percent after jumping in May by the most in two decades. The drop in payrolls in each month of the year is the longest streak since 2001-2002. The economy shed jobs for 14 months beginning March 2001, the same month it entered a recession.
Some analysts and investors are reversing predictions that the worst of the credit-market contraction is over after more than $400 billion of writedowns and losses by the world's largest financial institutions. Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. last month increased its quarterly loss estimate for Merrill Lynch & Co. and more than doubled its prediction for Merrill's subprime writedown, to $5.4 billion.

Citigroup Inc. and Merrill had their second-quarter earnings estimates cut yesterday by Oppenheimer & Co.'s Meredith Whitney on expectations of writedowns related to the subprime market and bond-insurer downgrades. Crude oil futures touched a record above $145 a barrel in New York on concern conflict with Iran would cut oil supplies.

Oil pullback and then off we go.

The question, what does it look like for the price of oil?
Lets see, war with Iran, hurricane season on way, Refinery utilization down, global demand sky rocketing, cantrell oil field production down causing mexicos overall exports to drop 12.5% this month, I am bullish oil.

But I am bullish after we see a bit of a pull back. We didn't push through the 150 price by the fourth of July so it looks like we will see a bit of a pullback and then take off. World is still in consumer price shock to these surging prices and demand will fall off a bit as discretionary traveling will go down. Remember this is summer and the biggest time for families to take vacations. Give them a few weeks bottled up in their homes with the kids and the toys will be broken out and we will see families hitting the road for shorter trips in the RVs with boats and ATVs.

Unemployment rate

The unemployment rate in May jumped more than it has in over two decades, reaching its highest level since October 2004 and emphasizing the recessionary risk the U.S. economy is currently facing. The civilian unemployment rate spiked to 5.5 percent from 5.0 percent in April, coming in much worse than the expectation of 5.1 percent. The last time the unemployment rate jumped half a percentage point was February 1985. With nearly 49,000 jobs cut from payrolls following decreases of 28,000 in April and 88,000 in March, May marked the fifth consecutive month of job losses. Overall, the economy has shed 324,000 jobs this year.
The latest decrease was led by declines in construction, professional & business services, retail trade, and manufacturing. Revisions to March and April resulted in a net revision downward of 15,000. On the inflation front, average hourly earnings advanced 0.3 percent in May, coming in above the market projection for a 0.2 percent boost.

With widespread payroll losses, the May non-farm report clearly portrayed further deterioration in the labor sector, lessening the ability of the consumer to support economic growth. The jump in unemployment may very well have been exaggerated for technical reasons such as graduating college students attempting to enter the labor market, but nevertheless points to weakening in employment. May's report has also put the Fed in a tough situation by lowering the odds of a healthy rebound in economic growth later this year. Treasury yields fell on the news and equities fell under downward pressure.

For week ending June 21, the Labor Department reported that the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 384,000, unchanged from the previous week's revised figure of 384,000. They also reported a four-week moving average of 378,250, an increase of 2,250 from the previous week's revised average of 376,000.

SP 500 daily could crack support soon

We are making attempt at the support. This move has a bit more strength behind it compared to March's push down.

Normally, I would not expect it to push through before a 3 day weekend. But the news is not good and sentiment says short. Sentiment is behind and they are just starting to short the market so there is some room to go down. How much, we shall see.

Lots of different warning signs popping up. If anything happens with Iran I expect to see our currency take a beating and gold to go through the roof.

The next target on oil is $160, once we break the psychological $150 it is poised to take off.

Careful out there.