Treasury two-year notes headed for the biggest five-day gain in three weeks after the Federal Reserve signaled it won't raise interest rates in coming months and the central bank's preferred inflation measure rose less than economists forecast.
Traders pushed two-year note yields to the lowest level in almost three weeks after U.S. consumer confidence fell to a 28- year low. Demand for the safety of government debt also rose as financial news network CNBC reported Merrill Lynch & Co. may post a second-quarter loss and write down the value of mortgage- related assets by as much as $5 billion, citing unidentified people.
Treasuries are still headed for their biggest quarterly loss in four years because of speculation in past weeks that rising energy prices would prompt the Fed to boost interest rates.
With the economy in a slump, and with prices rising rapidly, the Fed has found itself in a dilemma. Short-term rates already are low, and if the central bank cuts them more to stimulate economic growth, then prices could rise even faster and get out of control. If the Fed raises short-term rates, the result could be a recession (or a deeper recession, if the economy already is in one) and a delayed recovery. The economy cannot handle interest-rate increases. On the other hand, inflation pressure is going up. They're stuck between inflation and recession.
