Showing posts with label big move coming. Show all posts
Showing posts with label big move coming. Show all posts
Sunday, September 14, 2008
Wednesday, August 6, 2008
Aug 6 S&P 500 showing gaps and S&R futures emini
This is a longer term chart showing a 50 % retracement target to 1335, this is exactly where we have an open gap that has not been filled.We also have some downside open gaps that have not been filled.
1340 is the 200 MA on the monthly chart also.
we have opportunities in both direction.
This chart is showing a few open Gaps. The one that is changing my perspecitve is at 1335 area.[9:35:53 AM] Brightstone (Joel) says: This looks to me as a set up for an investor trap. Considering this is pre election, and with the movements in currency dollar strength, Oil price decreases and the smoothing over of the subprime crisis and bank failures, this new target seems completely reasonable to me. This is sort of a bull trap. I noticed that my short bias has influenced my trading and was searching for a way to leverage sentiment and this was staring me in the face. The 50% retracement is also at the 1335 area. The pattern is an ascending triangle with accumulation. The aggressive buyers outnumbering sellers since the temporary bottom has been put in.
If it completed to 35, we would have an ascending wedge.....I will be watching volume too. I can't imagine a 3 million volume upmove day like 7 - 16 to push us through.
Tuesday, July 1, 2008
Unemployment rate
The unemployment rate in May jumped more than it has in over two decades, reaching its highest level since October 2004 and emphasizing the recessionary risk the U.S. economy is currently facing. The civilian unemployment rate spiked to 5.5 percent from 5.0 percent in April, coming in much worse than the expectation of 5.1 percent. The last time the unemployment rate jumped half a percentage point was February 1985. With nearly 49,000 jobs cut from payrolls following decreases of 28,000 in April and 88,000 in March, May marked the fifth consecutive month of job losses. Overall, the economy has shed 324,000 jobs this year.
The latest decrease was led by declines in construction, professional & business services, retail trade, and manufacturing. Revisions to March and April resulted in a net revision downward of 15,000. On the inflation front, average hourly earnings advanced 0.3 percent in May, coming in above the market projection for a 0.2 percent boost.
With widespread payroll losses, the May non-farm report clearly portrayed further deterioration in the labor sector, lessening the ability of the consumer to support economic growth. The jump in unemployment may very well have been exaggerated for technical reasons such as graduating college students attempting to enter the labor market, but nevertheless points to weakening in employment. May's report has also put the Fed in a tough situation by lowering the odds of a healthy rebound in economic growth later this year. Treasury yields fell on the news and equities fell under downward pressure.
For week ending June 21, the Labor Department reported that the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 384,000, unchanged from the previous week's revised figure of 384,000. They also reported a four-week moving average of 378,250, an increase of 2,250 from the previous week's revised average of 376,000.
The latest decrease was led by declines in construction, professional & business services, retail trade, and manufacturing. Revisions to March and April resulted in a net revision downward of 15,000. On the inflation front, average hourly earnings advanced 0.3 percent in May, coming in above the market projection for a 0.2 percent boost.
With widespread payroll losses, the May non-farm report clearly portrayed further deterioration in the labor sector, lessening the ability of the consumer to support economic growth. The jump in unemployment may very well have been exaggerated for technical reasons such as graduating college students attempting to enter the labor market, but nevertheless points to weakening in employment. May's report has also put the Fed in a tough situation by lowering the odds of a healthy rebound in economic growth later this year. Treasury yields fell on the news and equities fell under downward pressure.
For week ending June 21, the Labor Department reported that the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 384,000, unchanged from the previous week's revised figure of 384,000. They also reported a four-week moving average of 378,250, an increase of 2,250 from the previous week's revised average of 376,000.
Monday, June 9, 2008
Economic News
U.S. Mortgage Delinquencies, Foreclosures Rise to 29-Year High. According to the Mortgage Banker's Association, new foreclosures rose to a seasonally adjusted 0.99 percent of all U.S. home loans, the total inventroy of homes in foreclosure increased to 2.47 percent and the delinquency rate, loans with one or more payments overdue, grew to 6.35 percent.
Rates on 30-year mortgages edged up last week to the highest level since March as investors worried about inflation threats. Freddie Mac reported Thursday that 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 6.09 percent, compared with 6.08 percent the previous week. It was the highest mark for 30-year mortgages in 12 weeks since averaging 6.13 percent the week of March 16.
U.S. Payrolls -49K, Unemployment Rate Climbs to 5.5%, after payrolls fell 28,000 in April and 88,000 in March. The unemployment rate, which is calculated using a separate survey of households, jumped 0.5 percentage point to 5.5%, its highest level since October 2004.
Real-Estate Woes of Banks Mount: Lenders Dumping Bad Loans at Discount; Regulators See Losses Continuing. Federal regulators warned Thursday that banking-industry turmoil would continue as financial institutions come to terms with piles of bad loans they made to finance the construction of homes and condominiums, which in turn could lead to billions of dollars in fresh losses.
Household Net Worth Fell 2.9% in 1Q08, the Most in 5 Years. According to our Federal Reserve, stock-market losses and falling home values in the first three months of this year led to the largest quarterly drop in the net wealth of American households since 2002.
Standard & Poor's said the number of entities at risk of having their ratings cut hit a new record of in May as a "material slowdown" in housing and consumer activity amid still-tightening lending conditions continues to deteriorate credit quality.
Mortgage applications in the U.S. last week dropped to the lowest level in six years, reflecting less refinancing as interest rates jumped.
ReconTrust, a unit of Countrywide, filed a notice of default on a $4.8 million Countrywide loan backed by Ed McMahon's home, who is $644,000 in arrears.
Goldman, the most profitable securities dealer, and Lehman, the top-ranked bond research firm in Institutional Investor's annual survey for eight years, bet the economy is too weak to spark runaway inflation and an increase in the Federal Reserve's target interest-rate for overnight loans between banks. Though futures traded on the Chicago Board of Trade show a 67 percent chance policy makers will boost the fed funds rate by year-end, they haven't started to raise borrowing costs with growth below an annualized 2 percent rate since 1980. The capital markets are underestimating how sluggish the economy is going to be. Any tightening priced into the fed funds futures market is premature at this stage of the game.
Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said in an address June 4 at Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts, that data showing the public expects price increases to accelerate is a ``significant concern'' for the central bank.
The case for an increase became weaker on June 6, as the Labor Department said that the unemployment rate surged to 5.5 percent in May from 5 percent in April. The gain was the biggest since February 1986. The economy is not performing at a rate that even remotely suggests they should raise interest rates along the lines that the markets are implying.
The Only way we will get oil under control is to raise Intrest Rates. Protect the dollar.
Rates on 30-year mortgages edged up last week to the highest level since March as investors worried about inflation threats. Freddie Mac reported Thursday that 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 6.09 percent, compared with 6.08 percent the previous week. It was the highest mark for 30-year mortgages in 12 weeks since averaging 6.13 percent the week of March 16.
U.S. Payrolls -49K, Unemployment Rate Climbs to 5.5%, after payrolls fell 28,000 in April and 88,000 in March. The unemployment rate, which is calculated using a separate survey of households, jumped 0.5 percentage point to 5.5%, its highest level since October 2004.
Real-Estate Woes of Banks Mount: Lenders Dumping Bad Loans at Discount; Regulators See Losses Continuing. Federal regulators warned Thursday that banking-industry turmoil would continue as financial institutions come to terms with piles of bad loans they made to finance the construction of homes and condominiums, which in turn could lead to billions of dollars in fresh losses.
Household Net Worth Fell 2.9% in 1Q08, the Most in 5 Years. According to our Federal Reserve, stock-market losses and falling home values in the first three months of this year led to the largest quarterly drop in the net wealth of American households since 2002.
Standard & Poor's said the number of entities at risk of having their ratings cut hit a new record of in May as a "material slowdown" in housing and consumer activity amid still-tightening lending conditions continues to deteriorate credit quality.
Mortgage applications in the U.S. last week dropped to the lowest level in six years, reflecting less refinancing as interest rates jumped.
ReconTrust, a unit of Countrywide, filed a notice of default on a $4.8 million Countrywide loan backed by Ed McMahon's home, who is $644,000 in arrears.
Goldman, the most profitable securities dealer, and Lehman, the top-ranked bond research firm in Institutional Investor's annual survey for eight years, bet the economy is too weak to spark runaway inflation and an increase in the Federal Reserve's target interest-rate for overnight loans between banks. Though futures traded on the Chicago Board of Trade show a 67 percent chance policy makers will boost the fed funds rate by year-end, they haven't started to raise borrowing costs with growth below an annualized 2 percent rate since 1980. The capital markets are underestimating how sluggish the economy is going to be. Any tightening priced into the fed funds futures market is premature at this stage of the game.
Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said in an address June 4 at Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts, that data showing the public expects price increases to accelerate is a ``significant concern'' for the central bank.
The case for an increase became weaker on June 6, as the Labor Department said that the unemployment rate surged to 5.5 percent in May from 5 percent in April. The gain was the biggest since February 1986. The economy is not performing at a rate that even remotely suggests they should raise interest rates along the lines that the markets are implying.
The Only way we will get oil under control is to raise Intrest Rates. Protect the dollar.
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)