S&P 500 day trading course S&P 500 emini futures jan 6

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Goldman and Morgan Stanley

The last two remaining Wall Street investment banks gave up their relatively non-regulated status and are now commercial banks as the Federal Reserve approved Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to become bank holding companies yesterday. The reason? Morgan and Goldman can now permanently borrow from the government, since banks can borrow from the Federal Reserve at the discount window. Less risk, less profit, but the ability to buy retail banks and add stability. It is an interesting trade-off.

Nomura Securities is close to buying Lehman's Asian operations as Lehman continues to be divvied up.

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Fannie and Freddie moving market

A new era in mortgage lending begins today as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac transition from Government Sponsored Enterprises to "government owned" and managed entities. The implicit guarantee behind Fannie and Freddie that we've known for decades is now explicit. The CEOs of both companies have been replaced and the companies have been moved into conservatorship by the U.S. Government. So this means the US government owns more of your home than most home owners do.

There are many unknowns, but one thing is clear... for now, the international and domestic stock markets have greeted the "mother of all bailouts" as positive. Stocks are moving significantly higher and treasuries are getting crushed in the stampede to equities. In fact, trading volume was so high in London this morning that the computer system at the London Stock Exchange melted down. London traders have been without access to their computerized pricing system for more than six hours.


Secretary Paulson and James Lockhart, the head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), have indicated that the portfolios of the "former GSEs" must shrink to reduce future risk to taxpayers. That's a nice idea, but who will buy mortgages in this environment if Fannie and Freddie decelerate their purchase activity? And, what kind of mortgages will Fannie and Freddie be buying in the future? Will they take on more or less risk? Will they continue to be saddled with the obviously impossible dual responsibilities of creating shareholder value while meeting the affordable housing goals of our government? Congress needs to define the roles of these two companies for the long term.

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July 3 SP 500 up 2.75 before the three day weekend

Treasury two-year notes gained after reports showed payrolls fell for a sixth straight month and U.S. service industries unexpectedly contracted in June, reducing speculation the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates. Which by the way puts us behind the Euro again. We will see a pull back on the euro but am expecting to hit new highs.

The 62,000 drop in payrolls was more than forecast, and followed a revised 62,000 decline in May that was greater than initially reported, the Labor Department said in Washington. The jobless rate remained at 5.5 percent after jumping in May by the most in two decades. The drop in payrolls in each month of the year is the longest streak since 2001-2002. The economy shed jobs for 14 months beginning March 2001, the same month it entered a recession.
Some analysts and investors are reversing predictions that the worst of the credit-market contraction is over after more than $400 billion of writedowns and losses by the world's largest financial institutions. Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. last month increased its quarterly loss estimate for Merrill Lynch & Co. and more than doubled its prediction for Merrill's subprime writedown, to $5.4 billion.

Citigroup Inc. and Merrill had their second-quarter earnings estimates cut yesterday by Oppenheimer & Co.'s Meredith Whitney on expectations of writedowns related to the subprime market and bond-insurer downgrades. Crude oil futures touched a record above $145 a barrel in New York on concern conflict with Iran would cut oil supplies.

Merrill Lynch says let em go

Layoffs at Merrill have been a long time coming. Now they’re right around the corner. In the next several weeks, the nation's biggest brokerage will quietly begin a big round of layoffs as it looks to cut costs and shore up profits as the credit crunch deepens, sources tell Trader Monthly. Merrill officials are drawing up plans to cut 10 percent to 15 percent from the investment banking division, sources familiar with the plans said. That could put as many as 300 Merrill bankers out on the pavement. (Merrill employs about 2,100 bankers firmwide.) Meanwhile, the firm is also preparing for another big writedown. Although the exact size and timing is unclear, some people familiar with the situation say it could be as high as $8 billion.