SP 500 daily Feb 29

sp 500 may 28 daily

Over priced homes a world wide problem

Overvalued homes a worldwide problem.

WHERE are house prices most overvalued? As the rest of the world watches the bursting of America's housing bubble, that question should be at the top of everyone's mind. The answer is not comforting: many countries have had far hotter housing markets than America and are also suffering from tightening lending conditions thanks to the credit crisis.

In the latest World Economic Outlook, Roberto Cardarelli of the IMF calculates the share of the increase in real house prices between 1997 and 2007 that cannot be accounted for by fundamental factors such as lower interest rates and rising incomes. This “house-price gap” is greatest for Ireland, the Netherlands and Britain, where prices are about 30% higher than can be justified by fundamentals. France, Australia and Spain have house-price gaps of around 20%. In America, where prices were already falling in 2007, the gap is just over 10%.

May 19 SP 500 Daily Breaking the Trend Line

SP 500 Daily, we have broken the Trend Line, we could see a little consolidation in this range until the next round of news to send us in a direction.

Oil is going to hit our market harder this month if we break $140 a barrel. Today we hit 1323.875 in Electronic trading. Watchout middle america your real income is dropping.

It seems the Fed is finally seeing the light of day and moved out of their cave. Announcing that there is some inflation and that out side of oil and food there have been price increases. Makes it sound like the bankers only eat expensive things that have really been affected by shipping and gas prices.

SP 500 daily May 19 after close

Where will we go. A gradual asceding wedge hitting the 200MA. Accumalation getting tighter and tighter between out trend lines. Volume is flat for the past week. 7 green candles in a row with alot of unsupported price in the highs.

No secondary market for Loans.

According to Inside Mortgage Finance, an unbelievable 99% of all new mortgages that were securitized in April went through Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac or Ginnie Mae. That compares to an "Agency" market share of less than 50% one year ago, proving that there's simply no secondary market for non-agency product at this time. That is an amazing statistic. NO secondary market..

Expect more volatility in interest rates this week. Today we have the LEI (index of Leading Economic Indicators), with the PPI report (wholesale inflation) due out tomorrow. Neither of these reports are expected to have a big impact on rates unless they miss expectations by a wide margin.

The most important news item on the calendar this week will be the FOMC Minutes, released on Wednesday. Traders will comb through these minutes to look for confirmation that The Fed has changed its posture toward interest rate cuts going forward.

Jobless claims up, single family housing down.

Jobless Claims continue high, U.S. Industrial Production (factories, mines, and utilities) was -0.7%, twice as weak as anticipated by economists, and capacity utilization, which measures the proportion of plants in use, fell to 79.7 percent, the lowest since September 2005. Lastly yesterday we had the Philadelphia Fed Index come out at -15.6 in May, better than forecast, from -24.9 in April. ( Readings less than zero signal contraction.)

Today we had Housing Starts increase by 8.2%, but the increase is entirely due to multi-family homes, up by 36%. In contrast, single family starts fell by another 1.7%, albeit from an upward-revised base. This follows the large decline last month, when starts fell by 13.8%, and year-over-year starts are down 30.6% - no surprise given the inventory levels that are out there. Building Permits were up, and single family permits rose by 4.0%, the first rise in a while. After it we have the 10-yr sitting at 3.87%.