The economy declined in the third quarter the most since 2001. New home sales expectedly rose 2.7 percent in September(fast inovators getting in before the final drop) , before credit markets froze, up from a drop of 12.6 percent in August, according to Commerce Department reports.
It is estimated that a Labor Department report on Nov. 7 will show payrolls shrank by 200,000 workers last month. The unemployment rate may jump to its highest level in more than five years.
And in case you are wondering why mortgage yields are higher again, here is a little background provided by our President(can you believe it) that will help you answer any questions you may have. Here are the main drivers:
1) International selling. A variety of factors - including some recent confusion over the semantics of whether the GSEs are "explicitly" or "effectively" guaranteed by the government - have created a new wave of MBS selling around the world. The general "flight-to-quality" has become so intense that investors are now carefully differentiating between degrees of government support and the fact that the GSE backing is considered "effective" but not "explicit" is actually very meaningful to investors in agency corporate debt as well as agency MBS.
2) Unintended consequences of the FDIC guaranteeing more forms of senior bank debt. As more and more investment alternatives become explicitly guaranteed by the government, the new abundance of risk-free investment choices has caused FNMA/FHLMC corporate debt costs to increase. As the GSEs' cost to finance MBS increases, holding MBS in their portfolios becomes less economical and the market expects them to be less involved in purchasing MBS.
3) Similar to #2 above, as sovereign debt issuers around the world issue debt at increasing yields, these investment alternatives also siphon-off potential demand for FNMA/FHLMC corporate debt and force the agency's funding costs higher making additional portfolio growth uneconomical to the GSEs.
4) De-leveraging continues across the investment community and is made worse at the moment since some dealers have year-ends in Nov and are not anxious to dramatically increase positions at this time.
5) Some investors are reallocating money back to stocks and out of MBS. This back-and-forth will obviously continue as the economic story plays-out.
Monday, November 3, 2008
S&P 500 day trading SP500 emini futures coach Nov 3 online
S&P 500 emini futures day trading education coach levels of support and resistance for November 3, with break outs, break downs, point of control from live day trading room. Using the Money Maker Edge system. Trading live at Http://www.tradingonlinemadeEasy.com SP500 emini futures, Mini Dow, Oil futures, gold, and currencies.
Friday, October 31, 2008
Day trading S&P 500 Emini futures coach Oct 28 SP500
S&P 500 emini futures day trading education coach levels of support and resistance for October 27, with break outs, break downs, point of control from live day trading room. Using the Money Maker Edge system. Trading live at Http://www.tradingonlinemadeEasy.com SP500 emini futures, Mini Dow, Oil futures, gold, and currencies.
S&P500 day trading SP500 emini futures coach Oct 29
S&P 500 emini futures day trading education coach levels of support and resistance for October 29, with break outs, break downs, point of control from live day trading room. Using the Money Maker Edge system. Trading live at Http://www.tradingonlinemadeEasy.com SP500 emini futures, Mini Dow, Oil futures, gold, and currencies.
Day trading and the Economy from S&P 500 emini futures day trading coach
U.S. consumer spending tumbled in September and a purchasing managers' survey showed the biggest deterioration since 1968, foreshadowing a deepening economic slump. Consumers have thrown in the towel it seems. Some economists think that they have no choice but to cut back on spending in a very big way. There is speculation that this is going to be a fairly deep, long recession.
Job losses, increases in food and fuel costs and falling property values brought an end to the longest expansion in spending on record and made the economy the most important issue in next week's presidential election. The collapse in lending and sentiment this month indicate Americans will keep retrenching.
Treasuries rose, with two-year notes headed for the best month since February, as slowed consumer spending added to speculation the U.S. economy will continue to deteriorate and boosted demand for the safest assets. U.S. debt gained after a government report showed personal spending fell 0.3 percent in September, more than forecast, and the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation cooled.
Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show an 84 percent probability the Fed will reduce its target rate to 0.5 percent at its Dec. 16 meeting. The odds a week ago were zero. The rest of the bets are for a quarter-percentage point reduction.
Job losses, increases in food and fuel costs and falling property values brought an end to the longest expansion in spending on record and made the economy the most important issue in next week's presidential election. The collapse in lending and sentiment this month indicate Americans will keep retrenching.
Treasuries rose, with two-year notes headed for the best month since February, as slowed consumer spending added to speculation the U.S. economy will continue to deteriorate and boosted demand for the safest assets. U.S. debt gained after a government report showed personal spending fell 0.3 percent in September, more than forecast, and the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation cooled.
Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show an 84 percent probability the Fed will reduce its target rate to 0.5 percent at its Dec. 16 meeting. The odds a week ago were zero. The rest of the bets are for a quarter-percentage point reduction.
Thursday, October 30, 2008
S&P 500 day trading SP500 emini futures coach oct 31 online education
S&P 500 emini futures day trading education coach levels of support and resistance for October 30, with break outs, break downs, point of control from live day trading room. Using the Money Maker Edge system. Trading live at Http://www.tradingonlinemadeEasy.com SP500 emini futures, Mini Dow, Oil futures, gold, and currencies.
S&P500 day trading coach SP500 emini futures GDP falls
S&P 500 had a rally, the Point of control 944.50 was great for trading both directions.
The Advanced GDP for the third quarter fell by a less than expected -0.3% vs. the consensus forecast of -0.5% as consumers slashed their spending by 3.1%, the quickest spending reduction in 28 years and first drop in spending in 17 years. Business spending declined by 1%. The inflation measuring Chain Deflator jumped to 4.2% from the second quarter's level of 1.1%, largely stoked by record high fuel costs when oil reached a peak of $147/barrel in the third quarter.
The contraction in economic activity in the third quarter is a sign we are headed into a recession although the second quarter GDP showed a gain of 2.8%. By definition, it takes two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth for the economy to officially be deemed in recession.
S&P500 day trading emini futures coach
The Advanced GDP for the third quarter fell by a less than expected -0.3% vs. the consensus forecast of -0.5% as consumers slashed their spending by 3.1%, the quickest spending reduction in 28 years and first drop in spending in 17 years. Business spending declined by 1%. The inflation measuring Chain Deflator jumped to 4.2% from the second quarter's level of 1.1%, largely stoked by record high fuel costs when oil reached a peak of $147/barrel in the third quarter.
The contraction in economic activity in the third quarter is a sign we are headed into a recession although the second quarter GDP showed a gain of 2.8%. By definition, it takes two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth for the economy to officially be deemed in recession.
S&P500 day trading emini futures coach
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)