We have an open gap sitting at 1320. It has not been filled yet, we could be heading up there. This pattern is an ascending triangle on the hourly. We have two open gaps below too.
Support and resistance are up, trade what you see.
Tuesday, August 5, 2008
Aug 5 hourly pre fed
this is pre fed charts this AM.
Watch for them to bring it up. We are getting alot of commodities rolling over, could be a good kick off for a further retracement.
Gold also looks like it is about to roll over.
Monday, August 4, 2008
Aug 4 S&P 500 5 min chart
Quite a choppy day we had on the S&P 500, a few breakouts.
FOMC meeting tomorrow so could be a slow morning as the traders wait for no announcement.
Alot is going on in Europe, they are showing signs of inflation and their un official unemployment is running in to the 10's+.
Oil, FOMC and Fannie
The Commerce Department reported this morning that Personal Income and Personal Spending both increased more than anticipated in June, providing evidence that inflation may have prevented those stimulus checks from the having the impact that was hoped.
Bonds and mortgage were off significantly in early trading on the news, but have recovered nicely. Currently, the Fannie Mae 6.00% coupon is off by 16 basis points, but it was down by 35bp earlier. The yield on the 10 Year Treasury Note is 3.94%. Stocks are trading lower by 85 points.
The Fed's FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) is meeting today and tomorrow to discuss interest rate policy. No rate changes are expected at this meeting, but based on recent comments from a few FOMC Members, there appears to be disagreement amongst the committee. As with the past two meetings, the language in their Policy Statement will be reviewed carefully by analysts to interpret the likelihood of rate increases before the end of the year.
Oil prices have come down more than $20 per barrel in the past few weeks to $125. While that's been helpful to gasoline prices, some perspective might be in order. According to the Department of Energy, as recently as February 2002 the price of oil was just $20 per barrel.
Bonds and mortgage were off significantly in early trading on the news, but have recovered nicely. Currently, the Fannie Mae 6.00% coupon is off by 16 basis points, but it was down by 35bp earlier. The yield on the 10 Year Treasury Note is 3.94%. Stocks are trading lower by 85 points.
The Fed's FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) is meeting today and tomorrow to discuss interest rate policy. No rate changes are expected at this meeting, but based on recent comments from a few FOMC Members, there appears to be disagreement amongst the committee. As with the past two meetings, the language in their Policy Statement will be reviewed carefully by analysts to interpret the likelihood of rate increases before the end of the year.
Oil prices have come down more than $20 per barrel in the past few weeks to $125. While that's been helpful to gasoline prices, some perspective might be in order. According to the Department of Energy, as recently as February 2002 the price of oil was just $20 per barrel.
Thursday, July 31, 2008
Markets Economic News
Treasuries advanced after government reports showed the economy grew at a slower pace in the second quarter than forecast, fueling speculation the Federal Reserve won't raise interest rates this year.
The gains pushed two-year notes to their biggest monthly rally since February after the growth report, which contained revisions that showed the economy may have slipped into recession during the last three months of 2007. Initial claims for unemployment benefits reached the highest level in more than five years. Initial jobless claims increased by 44,000 to 448,000 in the week ended July 26, from a revised 404,000 the prior week, the Labor Department said. Economists had forecast a drop in claims. The total number of people on benefit rolls rose to the most since December 2003.
The bond market still isn't providing investors with enough income to cover the rate of inflation, which rose 5 percent in the year ended June 30, Labor Department data show. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index has dropped 13 percent this year and the dollar declined 4.7 percent against the currencies of six trading partners as U.S. financial institutions posted losses and writedowns totaling $250 billion in the deepest housing recession since the Great Depression.
According to the Kiplinger Letter released yesterday, "California will fare well in the increasingly competitive global economy. Current job and housing troubles are only a pause in a wave of growth that will carry the state in a rising tide of expansion over the next 10 years."
The gains pushed two-year notes to their biggest monthly rally since February after the growth report, which contained revisions that showed the economy may have slipped into recession during the last three months of 2007. Initial claims for unemployment benefits reached the highest level in more than five years. Initial jobless claims increased by 44,000 to 448,000 in the week ended July 26, from a revised 404,000 the prior week, the Labor Department said. Economists had forecast a drop in claims. The total number of people on benefit rolls rose to the most since December 2003.
The bond market still isn't providing investors with enough income to cover the rate of inflation, which rose 5 percent in the year ended June 30, Labor Department data show. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index has dropped 13 percent this year and the dollar declined 4.7 percent against the currencies of six trading partners as U.S. financial institutions posted losses and writedowns totaling $250 billion in the deepest housing recession since the Great Depression.
According to the Kiplinger Letter released yesterday, "California will fare well in the increasingly competitive global economy. Current job and housing troubles are only a pause in a wave of growth that will carry the state in a rising tide of expansion over the next 10 years."
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