Thursday, July 31, 2008
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
No big news lots of Volatility
President Bush signed The Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008 this morning, despite a plea from the CEO of Nehemiah, Scott Syphax, asking the President to save the seller funded DAP program. Seller funded DAPs will be eliminated under the new law.
Without any significant or substantially reliable economic news this week, financial markets have been wildly volatile. The Dow lost 240 points on Monday, then rose 260 points yesterday. This morning the ADP Employment Report was released and showed an increase of 9,000 private sector jobs from June to July, which was a big surprise when compared to expectations that ADP would report a loss of 60,000 jobs. Stock futures pointed to a lower open prior to the ADP report, but reversed course in a huge way upon the report's release and The Dow opened up by more than 150 points this morning.
Two reports are scheduled for tomorrow. The quarterly Gross Domestic Product, which is a key indicator and measure of the countries growth, and the Q2 Employment Cost Index, which measures the cost of wages and benefits (wage inflation).
Without any significant or substantially reliable economic news this week, financial markets have been wildly volatile. The Dow lost 240 points on Monday, then rose 260 points yesterday. This morning the ADP Employment Report was released and showed an increase of 9,000 private sector jobs from June to July, which was a big surprise when compared to expectations that ADP would report a loss of 60,000 jobs. Stock futures pointed to a lower open prior to the ADP report, but reversed course in a huge way upon the report's release and The Dow opened up by more than 150 points this morning.
Two reports are scheduled for tomorrow. The quarterly Gross Domestic Product, which is a key indicator and measure of the countries growth, and the Q2 Employment Cost Index, which measures the cost of wages and benefits (wage inflation).
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
Budget deficit, Merrill and housing
Treasuries fell on speculation Merrill Lynch & Co.'s sale of securities linked to mortgages may signal that losses at banks and brokers are reaching a peak, reducing the haven appeal of government debt.
U.S. debt rallied yesterday as stocks slid and the International Monetary Fund said there's no end in sight to the U.S. housing slump. Two-year note yields fell 14 basis points, the most since July 14, to 2.57 percent. Treasuries underperformed European bonds and emerging market bonds as investors demanded higher yields on U.S. notes to compensate for the prospect of increased debt issuance.
The U.S. budget deficit will grow to a record $482 billion next year, the Bush administration said yesterday. Government borrowing needs will rise to $171 billion in the three months to Sept. 30, $59 billion more than predicted in April, the Treasury said in a statement in Washington yesterday. The budget shortfall reflects dwindling tax receipts because of the economic slowdown, the cost of a $168 billion stimulus package and spending on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
U.S. debt rallied yesterday as stocks slid and the International Monetary Fund said there's no end in sight to the U.S. housing slump. Two-year note yields fell 14 basis points, the most since July 14, to 2.57 percent. Treasuries underperformed European bonds and emerging market bonds as investors demanded higher yields on U.S. notes to compensate for the prospect of increased debt issuance.
The U.S. budget deficit will grow to a record $482 billion next year, the Bush administration said yesterday. Government borrowing needs will rise to $171 billion in the three months to Sept. 30, $59 billion more than predicted in April, the Treasury said in a statement in Washington yesterday. The budget shortfall reflects dwindling tax receipts because of the economic slowdown, the cost of a $168 billion stimulus package and spending on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Thursday, July 24, 2008
July 24 S&P 500 hits bottom target
Here we are running back on our wonderful rally. We have a 34 point range today. Needless to say it was a very heavy trend.
Selllers were committed most of the afternoon. Dependant on the gap in the morning lets see how we can play it. if we gap down and shoot through 1240 then to the 20's we go.
I don't see where the support is going to come in as hedgies have loosed their positions in the financials again. Remember our memorandum from to days ago no shorting the banks unless you have an agreement borrowing those stocks.
Shall be exciting because it will be setting the pace for the following week.
July 24 at the close financials and banks down
Look at the Red. Yesterday it was green and today they gave it back. We don't have much news tomorrow. I bet the summer holidays won't be starting early with this much movement going on.
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
July 23 daily after hours SP 500 emini
Looks like we testd up again today. Volume kept us up there. Looking for 1305 for major resistance and 1320 on a large volume spike. If oil keeps going down this will be an excellent opportunity to put in a longer term swing trade.
On the down side look for a reversal back to the lower tl, and dependant on what type of Gap we have open we could see it turn tomorrow afternoon.
Treasuries fall and Freddie and Fannie are saved
Treasuries fell for a second day before a record sale of two-year notes as concern dropped that financial companies' losses will widen, easing the haven appeal of government debt. What seems to be overhanging the market is the perception that the Fed wants to increase the rates. In fact, Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser said yesterday the central bank should raise interest rates ``sooner rather than later'' to prevent price expectations from getting out of control.
Futures contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade showed a 61 percent chance the central bank will increase the target rate for overnight bank lending by at least a quarter-percentage point, up from 25 percent odds a week ago.
Inflation expectations have fallen in the past two-and-a- half weeks as the cost of a barrel of oil has dropped about 15 percent from a record $147.27 a barrel on July 11, Treasuries indicated.
The House of Representatives is set to vote today on the rescue plan for mortgage-finance companies Fannie and Freddie. The central bank's Board of Governors on July 13 authorized the New York Fed to lend directly to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to meet their liquidity needs if necessary.
Futures contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade showed a 61 percent chance the central bank will increase the target rate for overnight bank lending by at least a quarter-percentage point, up from 25 percent odds a week ago.
Inflation expectations have fallen in the past two-and-a- half weeks as the cost of a barrel of oil has dropped about 15 percent from a record $147.27 a barrel on July 11, Treasuries indicated.
The House of Representatives is set to vote today on the rescue plan for mortgage-finance companies Fannie and Freddie. The central bank's Board of Governors on July 13 authorized the New York Fed to lend directly to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to meet their liquidity needs if necessary.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)