When will rates get better? S&P 500 is starting to fall.

Looking back to Friday, we had a nice improvement in both Treasury rates and mortgage prices after the payroll numbers indicated that labor is indeed slowing. The market believes that the Fed will lower overnight interest rates by 75 bps at the FOMC meeting next Tuesday, and some think that Fed Funds may eventually hit 2.0%. Friday's job report had very little "good" news for the economy, as NonFarm payrolls dropped for the second consecutive month, with back-month revisions downward, and most industries showed job losses.

This week we'll see the US trade deficit report tomorrow (expected -$59 billion), Thursday's weekly jobless claims (expected +4k to 355k), February Retail Sales (expected +0.8%), and then on Friday the Consumer Price Index for February (expected +0.3%) and the University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence report (expected -0.4). Currently the 10-yr is at 3.53% and mortgages are roughly unchanged from Friday.


So here's the $100 million question.... When the heck are mortgage prices going to improve? Why is the 10-yr Treasury down into the 3.5% range, yet conforming/conventional 30-yr loans, eligible for FNMA & FHLMC, back up into the 6% range? The widening that is occurring out to these levels, which statistically speaking happens once every 4,000 years, is a combination of several factors.

First, investors and money managers feel safer putting their money into Treasury securities rather than mortgage-related securities (right now, that seems like a "no brainer") Subjecting their money to the potential of borrowers defaulting and property depreciation is something that many prefer not to do. These two factors have led to losses for FNMA & FHLMC, along with others, and some investors have been selling mortgage securities in order to meet capital requirements. And selling has led to lower prices, and thus higher rates. That's it in a nut shell.

March 4 SP 500 nailed it.

Nailed support on S&P 500 from yesterday.

Great Play.

Treasuries were little changed with two-year note yields near the lowest in almost four years deterring investors and Federal Reserve officials indicating the U.S. economy remains under pressure from the housing slowdown, credit debt, bonds and bond insurers.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke urged lenders to forgive portions of mortgages for more borrowers whose home values have declined, and Vice Chairman Donald Kohn said U.S. banks face ``challenging market conditions.'' Bernanke, in remarks at a conference in Orlando, Florida, said more must be done to stem foreclosures. ``Efforts by both government and private-sector entities to reduce unnecessary foreclosures are helping, but more can, and should, be done,'' he said. ``Principal reductions that restore some equity for the homeowner may be a relatively more effective means of avoiding delinquency and foreclosure.''

In a sign the U.S. economic slowdown is spreading, the Bank of Canada cut its benchmark lending rate by a half-percentage point and signaled it will have to act again to offset a slump in exports to the U.S. The slowdown in the U.S. is beginning to have a greater effect on the rest of the world. Citigroup Inc., the biggest U.S. bank, may need additional capital from outside investors as losses stemming from the collapse of the U.S. subprime mortgage market increase.

First it will hit America/Canada, next will be Britan then Europe. Expect to see new high against the dollar across the board.

$4.20 a gallon gas could be coming for this summer.

We shall see.

SP 500 daily March 3

Treasuries fell, with the difference between the 10-year note's yield and the two-year rate increasing to near the widest in more than 3 1/2 years, on bets Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts will stoke inflation. Bonds slumped as oil traded above $100 a barrel and gold futures rose to a record high. Treasuries pared earlier gains as speculation eased that policy makers are considering a cut in the discount rate at a meeting of the board of governors today.

A posting on the Fed's Web site said that a board meeting today would include the ``review and determination by the board of governors of the advance and discount rates to be charged by Federal Reserve banks.''

The Fed's first interest-rate response to the August credit collapse was to lower the discount rate, rather than the benchmark federal funds rate target. The market is hyper-sensitive to anything the Fed does.

Treasuries

Treasuries rose, pushing two-year yields to the lowest level since April 2004, as mounting losses in credit markets and the slowing U.S. economy drove investors to the safety of government debt. More than $181 billion in losses linked to subprime mortgage loans have made banks around the world less willing to lend to companies and individuals. The losses, triggered by the worst housing recession in a quarter-century, have prompted the Fed to cut rates to 3 percent from 5.25 percent since September.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told the Senate Banking Committee yesterday it's ``fair'' to say the Fed has a tougher time responding to the current slowdown compared with the recession of 2001. He said some small banks exposed to real estate may fail, fueling bets policy makers will increase the pace of interest-rate cuts.

SP 500 daily Feb 29