Treasuries fell, with the difference between the 10-year note's yield and the two-year rate increasing to near the widest in more than 3 1/2 years, on bets Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts will stoke inflation. Bonds slumped as oil traded above $100 a barrel and gold futures rose to a record high. Treasuries pared earlier gains as speculation eased that policy makers are considering a cut in the discount rate at a meeting of the board of governors today.
A posting on the Fed's Web site said that a board meeting today would include the ``review and determination by the board of governors of the advance and discount rates to be charged by Federal Reserve banks.''
The Fed's first interest-rate response to the August credit collapse was to lower the discount rate, rather than the benchmark federal funds rate target. The market is hyper-sensitive to anything the Fed does.
Monday, March 3, 2008
Friday, February 29, 2008
Treasuries
Treasuries rose, pushing two-year yields to the lowest level since April 2004, as mounting losses in credit markets and the slowing U.S. economy drove investors to the safety of government debt. More than $181 billion in losses linked to subprime mortgage loans have made banks around the world less willing to lend to companies and individuals. The losses, triggered by the worst housing recession in a quarter-century, have prompted the Fed to cut rates to 3 percent from 5.25 percent since September.
Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told the Senate Banking Committee yesterday it's ``fair'' to say the Fed has a tougher time responding to the current slowdown compared with the recession of 2001. He said some small banks exposed to real estate may fail, fueling bets policy makers will increase the pace of interest-rate cuts.
Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told the Senate Banking Committee yesterday it's ``fair'' to say the Fed has a tougher time responding to the current slowdown compared with the recession of 2001. He said some small banks exposed to real estate may fail, fueling bets policy makers will increase the pace of interest-rate cuts.
Thursday, February 28, 2008
Feb 28 support and resistance S&P 500
Today we are consolidating
66 -69 range with a 14.5 point trading range.
Market is preparing for the news tomorrow.
Trade what you see.
Treasuries rose, with three-month bill rates dropping to the lowest since 2004, as reports showed the economy's fourth-quarter growth was less than forecast and first-time claims for jobless benefits increased last week.
U.S. government debt also advanced as stocks declined and phone company Sprint Nextel Corp. and mortgage financier Freddie Mac said they lost almost $32 billion last quarter. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told a Senate committee today that it's ``fair'' to say the bank has a tougher time responding to the current slowdown compared with the recession of 2001. Initial jobless claims increased by 19,000 to 373,000 in the week ended Feb. 23, from a revised 354,000 a week earlier that was higher than previously reported.
Traders increased bets that the central bank will reduce the target rate for overnight lending between banks by more than a half-percentage point next month. Bernanke signaled he's ready to lower interest rates again in testimony to a Senate panel today. Ten-year note yields may fall to 3.55 percent by the end of June with the most recent forecasts given the heaviest weighting. Two-year yields may rise to 2.06 percent, from 1.86 percent today.
Freddie Mac, the second-largest mortgage-finance company, posted a record $2.45 billion fourth- quarter loss as rising defaults sent credit costs soaring. Freddie Mac, which buys and guarantees home loans, had predicted the results would be similar to the third-quarter's $2 billion loss.
U.S. government debt also advanced as stocks declined and phone company Sprint Nextel Corp. and mortgage financier Freddie Mac said they lost almost $32 billion last quarter. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told a Senate committee today that it's ``fair'' to say the bank has a tougher time responding to the current slowdown compared with the recession of 2001. Initial jobless claims increased by 19,000 to 373,000 in the week ended Feb. 23, from a revised 354,000 a week earlier that was higher than previously reported.
Traders increased bets that the central bank will reduce the target rate for overnight lending between banks by more than a half-percentage point next month. Bernanke signaled he's ready to lower interest rates again in testimony to a Senate panel today. Ten-year note yields may fall to 3.55 percent by the end of June with the most recent forecasts given the heaviest weighting. Two-year yields may rise to 2.06 percent, from 1.86 percent today.
Freddie Mac, the second-largest mortgage-finance company, posted a record $2.45 billion fourth- quarter loss as rising defaults sent credit costs soaring. Freddie Mac, which buys and guarantees home loans, had predicted the results would be similar to the third-quarter's $2 billion loss.
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
SP 500 daily Feb25 patterns
Here are a few chart patterns on the 5 minute. You can correlate the breakthroughs and the volume break outs.
Trade what you see.
Yesterday it was reported that Existing Home Sales slipped 0.4% in January, and that the inventory of homes for sale edged higher, reflecting a growing imbalance between housing supply and demand. Good for buyers, not for sellers: sales of existing homes are now down 32% from the peak in autumn 2005 (New Home sales are -55% from the peak).
This morning the Producer Price Index jumped 1.0% in January on rising energy costs and posted the biggest 12-month gain in more than 26 years. Core PPI, which strips out volatile energy and food costs, was +0.4 percent, the sharpest increase since February. They were expected +.4% and +.2% respectively, so worries about inflation seem to be real - producer prices were up 7.4 percent from January of last year, the steepest climb since October 1981! Later this morning we'll see Consumer Confidence, Fed Governor Kohn speaking in New York , and the markets preparing for a $24 billion 2-yr auction tomorrow and a $14 billion 5-yr auction Thursday.
Mortgage prices were roughly unchanged before these numbers, and are currently...about the same! This is surprising, although there is some feeling that a) the market is "over-done" on the side of higher rates, and b) the continued housing weakness is bound to have more impact on the economy as time goes on (not good!). Yesterday the markets got some good news when S&P did not downgrade bond insurers MBIA or Ambac. If they had been downgraded, they would have had trouble guaranteeing debt and strip the AAA label from $1.2 trillion of insured municipal and asset-backed debt.
This morning the Producer Price Index jumped 1.0% in January on rising energy costs and posted the biggest 12-month gain in more than 26 years. Core PPI, which strips out volatile energy and food costs, was +0.4 percent, the sharpest increase since February. They were expected +.4% and +.2% respectively, so worries about inflation seem to be real - producer prices were up 7.4 percent from January of last year, the steepest climb since October 1981! Later this morning we'll see Consumer Confidence, Fed Governor Kohn speaking in New York , and the markets preparing for a $24 billion 2-yr auction tomorrow and a $14 billion 5-yr auction Thursday.
Mortgage prices were roughly unchanged before these numbers, and are currently...about the same! This is surprising, although there is some feeling that a) the market is "over-done" on the side of higher rates, and b) the continued housing weakness is bound to have more impact on the economy as time goes on (not good!). Yesterday the markets got some good news when S&P did not downgrade bond insurers MBIA or Ambac. If they had been downgraded, they would have had trouble guaranteeing debt and strip the AAA label from $1.2 trillion of insured municipal and asset-backed debt.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)