S&P 500 Emini Day Trading Gap Monday January 25, 2010

                                S&P 500 Emini Futures Day Trading THE GAP

S&P 500 Emini Day Trading Gap Monday January 25, 2010

S&P Emini 500 Futures had another convincing distribution day on Friday.  Volume was more than double the average at 3.54 million contracts, and the range was very deep to the downside.  All signs that the rally from March 2009 may be in for a correction.  After three high volume down days in a row, however, look for a bounce in the short term.  A spike to the 115 level over the next couple of days, with a break below 1085 may be a signal that the correction is for real.  Friday's action filled two open gaps that had been underneath the market price levels for awhile.  The open gap from the Monday December 21 close of 1108.75, and the open gap from the Friday December 18 close of 1098.25, both filled on Friday.  High volume tests to the downside have occurred twice in the rally, once in summer of last year and once again in the fall.  Both times the test has been overcome to the upside.  Action on the moving averages for this downside test seem to indicate a more serious challenge to the downside.

S&P 500 day trading course

Forex trading - US equities will give direction

Risk appetite is still lurching lower after yesterday's speech by US President Barack Obama that outlined dramatic reforms of the banking system; most notably the proposal to limit the extent banks can engage in proprietary trading and prevent banks from investing in hedge funds and private companies. Confusion is still rife as to how the definition of proprietary trading will be applied, and whether some of the largest financial institutions in the US will now face break-up to separate their commercial and investment activities, but investors reacted emphatically with an aggressive equity sell-off that saw $30bn wiped off America's top shares in two minutes. EURJPY plunged from 129.50 levels before the news to overnight lows of 126.56 – the strongest level of the JPY seen in over 9 months. Overnight, Asian indices have joined the equity market rout, with the Nikkei down over 2.5% and the Hang Seng down around 1.5%, with the misery compounded by renewed fears that China is moving towards tighter monetary policy. The flight to safe-haven assets such as the JPY will be an unwelcome development for newly appointed Japanese Finance Minister Naoto Kan who will now have his resolve tested after being quoted as favouring USDJPY in a range of 90 to 95. USDJPY has already dipped to lows of 89.79 in overnight trading, and if it falls further it is likely to dent Kan's credibility and prompt a scramble to verbally intervene and weaken the JPY. Meanwhile, Greek Finance Minister Papaconstantinou denied speculation Greece would require aid in its mission to handle the current budget concerns, stating "We are not expecting anyone to come to our rescue. Greece has not asked for it, not is it expecting anything of that sort". This followed an IMF spokesperson that was quoted yesterday as saying there was no expectation for Greece to request financial help from the IMF, appeasing concerns of sovereign default for the time being. EURUSD has recovered from its 1.4028 lows t [...]

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S&P 500 Emini Day Trading Gap Friday January 22, 2010

S&P 500 Emini Futures Day Trading THE GAP

S&P 500 Emini Day Trading Gap Friday January 22, 2010

S&P Emini 500 Futures had no gap today, but had  a big drop on huge volume.  The price drop was a convincing bearish move, that came within a tick of filling the open gap from the Thursday, December 31 close of 1110.50.  That's close enough to call the gap filled.  All indications point to further downward movement in the index.  Volume on the day was a robust 3.4 million contracts, and the range was more than double the 14 day average true range at 27.5 points deep.  The close came at the low end of the range, indicating a further decline is possible if the index breaks the 1110.50 level in the morning.  If positive earnings reports come from GOOG, some of the prominent financial companies this evening, or from GE tomorrow pre market, the index could bounce before resuming any correction to the down side.  A good measure of how far down a possible correction my go can be gleaned from the open gaps beneath the current prices.  The lowest lies at 902.00 from last July.  That's a big drop from here, but 10 months of upward market movement can be erased relatively quickly.

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Forex trading EURUSD sells as republicans win Mass. US equities head lower.

The JPY has weakened markedly overnight after strong Chinese continued to suggest robust economic conditions prevail. China's Real GDP in Q4 was an astonishing annualized rate of 10.7% (10.5% expected) and there were upward revisions to the Q3 data from 8.9% YoY to 9.1%. In addition, Retail Sales surged to 17.5% YoY (16.3% expected), and CPI jumped to 1.9% YoY from 0.6% levels seen last month. So far, USDJPY has traded up to 91.66 highs as the data soothed some of the effects of recent bouts of risk aversion. Nevertheless, considerable concerns are still weighing on the market's sentiment and keeping the USD elevated. Yesterday's earnings releases failed to inspire, with Morgan Stanley missing estimates by a significant margin (profits of 14 cents per share against expectations for 41.5 cents per share), dragging US equities lower. The USD has also been boosted by a Republican victory in the election for the Massachusetts senator vacancy; the win means that the Democrats no longer have the 60 votes required to automatically pass their healthcare bill, and indeed the prospect of political stalemate reduces the likelihood of further fiscal stimulus (stimulus that would likely weigh on the USD). The high demand for USDs has left NZDUSD still languishing around 0.7200 levels (after falling over 2.5% yesterday post-CPI) despite better than expected Retail Sales data overnight which came out at 0.8% MoM (consensus 0.5%). One of the main events of the coming session will be the release of the BoC Monetary Policy Report, followed up with the usual press conference with central bank Governor Carney. Yesterday's CPI was a subdued -0.3% MoM (vs. consensus -0.1%), a release that has reduced the odds that the BoC will cast off its conditional rate pledge before the end of Q2. The data pushed USDCAD to test major resistance at 1.0500 (1.0493 the high), and we remain vigilant of Governor Carney repeated any mentions of currency intervention in his press conference whic [...]

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Forex trading - dollar still stengthening against Euro Jan 21

Forex day trading -

The yen fell after a report from China showed economic growth accelerated to the fastest pace since 2007, damping demand for Japan's currency as a haven. The yen dropped the most against the Australian dollar among the 16 major currencies on speculation Japan's central bank will keep interest rates close to zero as the economy struggles to gain momentum. The yen slipped to 83.44 per Australian dollar as of 7:57 a.m. in London from 83.04 in New York yesterday. It depreciated to 128.95 per euro from 128.68, and was at 91.52 per dollar from 91.24.

The euro was near the weakest in five months against the dollar after the cost to protect Greek bonds from default reached a record. The euro traded at $1.4088 versus the dollar from $1.4106 yesterday, after earlier dropping to $1.4068, the lowest since Aug. 18. Gold declined for a second day in London, falling to the lowest in more than two weeks, as a stronger dollar curbed demand for the metal as an alternative investment. Gold for immediate delivery fell $5.10, or 0.5 percent, to $1,105.95 an ounce at 9:43 a.m. local time, the lowest since Jan. 4. The metal dropped 2.4 percent yesterday. Bullion for February delivery was 0.7 percent lower at $1,105.30 on the New York Mercantile Exchange's Comex division.

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S&P 500 emini futures day trading coach Oct 22 SP500 30 min chart

took a few more positive trades today. This was in the

S&P 500 emini live trading room.

S&P 500 Emini futures coach sept 29 levels swing trading

Goldman and Morgan Stanley

The last two remaining Wall Street investment banks gave up their relatively non-regulated status and are now commercial banks as the Federal Reserve approved Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to become bank holding companies yesterday. The reason? Morgan and Goldman can now permanently borrow from the government, since banks can borrow from the Federal Reserve at the discount window. Less risk, less profit, but the ability to buy retail banks and add stability. It is an interesting trade-off.

Nomura Securities is close to buying Lehman's Asian operations as Lehman continues to be divvied up.

Emini trading coach

S&P 500 Emini futures coach daily for sept 15 levels

Sept. 3 S&P 500 emini futures daily chart after hours

We are very propped up the Fed gave us a very light reading on the market. There is so much going on from Credit, inability of lenders to lend because of underwriting and we are going into the worst part of the Real Estate Market sales season.

Oil is loosing its catalyst of market movement, we shall see some large energy funds close out and give their investors a little money bank.

We are in a very tight trade channel, and when it successfully breaks out it we could see some very violent moves.

Oil looks like it is at a low so we shall see.

Dollar is also holding its strength.

Fannie and Freddie moving market, bonds, oil

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac tumbled in New York trading to the lowest valuations since at least 1990 as speculation increased that the U.S. Treasury will bail out the mortgage-finance companies, wiping out shareholders. Fannie, based in Washington, slumped as much as 20 percent and McLean, Virginia-based Freddie dropped as much as 32 percent, extending its losses to 90 percent for the year. Rising borrowing costs and evidence that demand for their debt was waning last month led Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson to seek the authority to pump unlimited amounts of capital in Fannie and Freddie in an emergency. Freddie paid its highest yields on record in a debt sale yesterday amid concern that credit losses are depleting the capital of the beleaguered mortgage-finance companies.

Fannie and Freddie have $223 billion of bonds due by the end of the quarter and their success in rolling over that debt may determine whether they can avoid a federal bailout. Fannie has about $120 billion of debt maturing through Sept. 30, while Freddie has $103 billion.
Treasuries rose after a report that Freddie Mac will meet with government officials, fueling concern a takeover of the mortgage-finance provider is imminent and leading investors to the safety of government debt.

Oil prices began creeping upward this morning, but a government report that reflected a surprising increase in crude supply stalled the oil rally and allowed The Dow to climb as much as 80 points before falling back. Treasuries are steady with the 10 Year yielding 3.80%.

Aug 19 2008 Emini S&P 500 futures ES hourly

Trend line busted fell through support, if we break support here we are headed for the open gap at 49.75.

Expecting some big support here.

Lets see where it goes.

Aug 18 2008 Emini S&P 500 futures ES hourly

Still have three open gaps. Supporting green lines, showing a little strength, we could see it bounce up take out the target and then make a run for new lows.

The 200 ema could add a bit of support to price.

Watch out for low volume pushes that move rapidly. Not many big players putting on positoins. Nothing over a thousand today.

Little bit of news tomorrow. No big suprises except for a banking news.

Aug 15 Daily SP 500 Emini Futures

Aug 12 Daily chart SP 500 emini futures

S&P 500 has followed the support trend line in this move up towards the 1322.5 open gap and the 50% retracement.

Today's close will be the key for this continuation of the midterm retracement. Below 1280 and we will probably be heading back to the lows.

Aug 5 ES charts for Aug 6

We have an open gap sitting at 1320. It has not been filled yet, we could be heading up there. This pattern is an ascending triangle on the hourly. We have two open gaps below too.

Support and resistance are up, trade what you see.

Aug 5 hourly pre fed

this is pre fed charts this AM.

Watch for them to bring it up. We are getting alot of commodities rolling over, could be a good kick off for a further retracement.

Gold also looks like it is about to roll over.

No big news lots of Volatility

President Bush signed The Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008 this morning, despite a plea from the CEO of Nehemiah, Scott Syphax, asking the President to save the seller funded DAP program. Seller funded DAPs will be eliminated under the new law.

Without any significant or substantially reliable economic news this week, financial markets have been wildly volatile. The Dow lost 240 points on Monday, then rose 260 points yesterday. This morning the ADP Employment Report was released and showed an increase of 9,000 private sector jobs from June to July, which was a big surprise when compared to expectations that ADP would report a loss of 60,000 jobs. Stock futures pointed to a lower open prior to the ADP report, but reversed course in a huge way upon the report's release and The Dow opened up by more than 150 points this morning.

Two reports are scheduled for tomorrow. The quarterly Gross Domestic Product, which is a key indicator and measure of the countries growth, and the Q2 Employment Cost Index, which measures the cost of wages and benefits (wage inflation).

Budget deficit, Merrill and housing

Treasuries fell on speculation Merrill Lynch & Co.'s sale of securities linked to mortgages may signal that losses at banks and brokers are reaching a peak, reducing the haven appeal of government debt.

U.S. debt rallied yesterday as stocks slid and the International Monetary Fund said there's no end in sight to the U.S. housing slump. Two-year note yields fell 14 basis points, the most since July 14, to 2.57 percent. Treasuries underperformed European bonds and emerging market bonds as investors demanded higher yields on U.S. notes to compensate for the prospect of increased debt issuance.

The U.S. budget deficit will grow to a record $482 billion next year, the Bush administration said yesterday. Government borrowing needs will rise to $171 billion in the three months to Sept. 30, $59 billion more than predicted in April, the Treasury said in a statement in Washington yesterday. The budget shortfall reflects dwindling tax receipts because of the economic slowdown, the cost of a $168 billion stimulus package and spending on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Treasuries fall and Freddie and Fannie are saved

Treasuries fell for a second day before a record sale of two-year notes as concern dropped that financial companies' losses will widen, easing the haven appeal of government debt. What seems to be overhanging the market is the perception that the Fed wants to increase the rates. In fact, Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser said yesterday the central bank should raise interest rates ``sooner rather than later'' to prevent price expectations from getting out of control.
Futures contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade showed a 61 percent chance the central bank will increase the target rate for overnight bank lending by at least a quarter-percentage point, up from 25 percent odds a week ago.

Inflation expectations have fallen in the past two-and-a- half weeks as the cost of a barrel of oil has dropped about 15 percent from a record $147.27 a barrel on July 11, Treasuries indicated.
The House of Representatives is set to vote today on the rescue plan for mortgage-finance companies Fannie and Freddie. The central bank's Board of Governors on July 13 authorized the New York Fed to lend directly to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to meet their liquidity needs if necessary.