Monday, April 19, 2010

Forex day trading London close

Risky currencies were sold in Asian session, as the SEC's allegations of fraud and conflict of interest by a US investment bank weighted on investor's sentiment. The EURUSD sank to 1.3437, while the USDJPY fell to 91.60. While the charges we very specific, there was significant position trimming across asset classes. Asian regional indexes and commodities, lead by a fall in Gold, were lower across the board. While in the short term participants will remain skittish, we believe the fear of contagion will fade quickly. After reading the SEC report, it seems like the accusations are very specific and the possibility that regulators and investors could use this as a spring board for broader actions against the financial sector looks unlikely. Given our view on the SEC case and that fact that general macro fundamentals remain supportive, we suspect this is more of a short term correction in high beta assets than a game changing reversal in sentiment. Interestingly lost in Friday's hysteria, was the US housing starts and building permits, which both rose giving the USD fundamental reasons for gaining strength. The IMF, EU and Greek emergency meeting that was expected to start today in Athens was postponed due to ash clouds spilling over European skies. This was potentially positive for policy makers, as Greek protestors were expected to come out in droves. A strong ground swell of Greek resistance would surely highlight investors concern that much is riding on the public's support of the fiscal austerity programs. Within Greece there is legitimate concern that the IMF will demand additional wage cut and tax increase for their portion of the rescue program. Should public support widely turn against the Governments pledge to stick to the austerity program, investors and potentially the IMF and EU neighbors might quickly loser their desire to assist.

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Sunday, April 18, 2010

Twitter Weekly Updates for 2010-04-18

Forex day tading room Friday close

Forex day trading room € The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.3470 level and was capped around the $1.3585 level.  The common currency failed to sustain early gains this week and was pushed lower on Friday after U.S. equities tumbled.  The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filed fraud charges against Goldman Sachs for its involvement in the sub-prime mortgage crisis that rocked the financial world.  Shares in Goldman Sachs finished the week down more than US$ 18 and today's news is likely to accelerate the Obama administration's calls for greater regulatory reform, particularly over derivatives.  The U.S. financial sector was doing decently following some initial first quarter earnings reports from the likes of Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase.  Kansas City Fed President Hoenig said the Fed should exit monetary policy as "delibertely as possible" and called on the Fed to "eventually" reduce its balance sheet below US$ 1 trillion.  San Francisco Fed President Yellen warned the Fed has "stepped on the gas as much as it can."  Data released in the U.S. today saw March housing starts gain 1.6% m/m and building permits climbed 7.5% m/m.  Also, mid-April University of Michigan consumer sentiment fell back to 69.5 from the prior reding of 73.6.  In eurozone news, traders are closely monitoring the situation involving the Icelandic volcano that erupted this week for the first time in nearly two centuries.  The volcano has prompted the cancellation of a significant number of flights across Europe and is having a negative impact on cross-border business. Eurozone finance ministers are said to have ordered Greece to prepare to tap its credit facility with the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.  European Central Bank member Stark said he is skeptical about IMF loans to Greece and str [...]

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S&P500 day trading course weekly set up

S&P500 day trading course weekly set up. We are looking at a 240 min S&P500 emini futures day trading chart with levels of support and resistance. [caption id="attachment_2187" align="alignleft" width="171" caption="S&P500 day trading course "]S&P500 day trading course[/caption] We are looking at resistance at 1211-3 mark.  Goldman Sachs news hit and executed on what was a very low volume Head and shoulders on the hourly chart. We have completed the move down and now am looking for a retracement to 50 or 61% for an ambush on the next leg down. We have touched the supporting trend line at 1182.50 on the four hour chart, in order to keep this upward trend in tact we will have to break above the 1198.75 resistance. If this resistance holds we could be looking at a Head and Shoulder pattern on the 4 hour chart with the formation of the right shoulder off of 1197-99. Look for a downside target in the 1169-72 area. If we settle above the 1198 area and gain some commitment, with buyers buying, we could be looking at a test back up to the neckline of the previous Head and shoulders and  some consolidation in this area. [caption id="attachment_2188" align="alignleft" width="171" caption="S&P500 day trading course 240 short Head and shoulders"][...]

S&P 500 day trading course

Friday, April 16, 2010

Forex day trading room Europe

Forex day trading room. The ash cloud spreading over northern Europe is a clear reminder that one EU nations problems will eventually plague the rest. We are steering clear of extrapolating the effect on the GDP, since extreme weather related effect are generally exaggerated. However, the rumor mill has been swirling that Greece's schedule meeting with EU and IMF officials over the next few days will lead to the deployment of aid. In early European trading, the EUR has picked up a slightly bullish tone after being sold in Asia. Traders will be keeping one eye on developments surrounding Greece and the other on German elections. It's important to point out that Greece has capital to cover this month's bond redemptions and is moving ahead with its US road show (which suggest pre-marketing was successful). So, the concern is longer term funding issue. The current markets rate for Greece paper is unsustainable for continued borrowing, despite the recent pullback in yields, which means that Greece will have to turn to subsidized lending from the EU / IMF. Given the logistical issues before any capital can be distributed, including legal challenges and the fact that many countries just don't have the cash on hand, there will be a significant lag from requesting to distribution. Greece has a choice whether they can wait till all issues have been cleared or request the bailout now giving EU nations time to prepare. Since the IMF will be in Athens on Monday, Greek officials will be able to sort out issues such as lending rates and how harsh austerity might be and, in our opinion, highly increasing the probability that the EU / IMF bailout is called in. The knee-jerk reaction should be EUR positive as the short term sentiment relief should put pressure on the markets extreme short positioning. The sterling came under selling pressure as yesterday's first ever televised election debate between the three hopeful leaders re-introduced the promise of a "hung" Pa [...]

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Thursday, April 15, 2010

Forex trading room eurusd

Forex day trading room  EurUsd There has not been a great deal of volatility for EURUSD in the last few sessions which makes saying something new about the pair a somewhat tricky task. However, yesterday evening's dip down to 1.3546 has since been followed by a strong bound back above 1.3600 levels, and we still remain resolutely bullish until we get a compelling technical argument to abandon this bias. Looking at the daily chart, the double bottom formation we have been monitoring still seems valid, and measuring from the 25 March lows to the neckline (at 1.3590) the target can be expected to be around 1.3920. Resistance levels on the topside are Monday's highs 1.3692, then 1.3800 (50.0% fibonacci retracement level of 1.2457-1.5145), and 1.3850 pivot levels not seen since 4 February. First supports on the downside are 1.3579 (50-day moving average), then yesterday's lows of 1.3546; the back side of the former downtrend should also be a strong area of bids, coming in today at 1.3435.As a quick treat in addition to the daily chart on the previous page, here's a look at the hourly chart as I currently have it –and the potential bullish flag pattern that might come into play in the coming days. The downward sloping consolidation range currently has an upper bound at 1.3665, and lower bound of 1.3540; should the pair manage to break above the upper edge, we can expect targets for the flag around 1.4070 (but the precise target would depend on where the break out comes). GbpUsd After the fantastically successful symmetrical triangle pattern we followed last week in GBPUSD, we now seem to be fortunate enough to be getting another one forming on the hourly chart. Too good to be true? Perhaps, but given the big profits banked on the last one it seems worth a punt, and since the break of the major downtrend back on 29 March, we have not been given any reason to doubt the bullish momentum. The width of this symmetrical triangle [...]

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Wednesday, April 14, 2010

Forex Day Trading Room

EUR/USD [caption id="attachment_810" align="alignnone" width="300" caption="FXDMG"]FXDMG[/caption] Here is a 15 min chart for the last day. We were able to take a nice long ride down yesterday and the retrace back up was around 100 pips. I persoonally did not ride the market up as yesterday was a busy day on the phone. This week looks like it can't find direction, and that is OK as long as we get a good consolidation range like yesterday as it is money in the bank with little stress, just follow the 1, 5, 15 min charts. I will be in Hong Kong this weekend but will be back in time for the opening of the market next week. I will post what I see but there is little other than standard Pivot Points (Which I will post 00:00 GMT) each day and our regular EMA's, BB, and MACD. Taking scalps and riding the wave. FXDMG

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